International trade of steel may face long-term and short-term challenges

Currently, factors such as slowing global economic growth, rising trade protectionism, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, and fluctuating raw material prices have brought many challenges to the overseas development of the steel industry. In this context, where will the international trade of Chinese steel go?

Recently, there have been new changes in the global steel industry landscape. Firstly, the export supply of steel from Russia and Ukraine has decreased, leaving only Southeast Asia and China as low-priced supply markets. The logistics pattern of steel in the Middle East and Europe has also changed. Secondly, India's domestic demand is growing rapidly, completing the transition from a net exporter of steel to a net importer. Thirdly, the traditional high priced regions of Europe and America have weakened their price pull, especially in the European market, manifested by insufficient demand, low replenishment efforts, and short duration. In this situation, steel companies and traders face both challenges and opportunities in import and export. We should make timely and prudent decisions, actively explore international steel trade models that are in line with the new supply and demand environment.

In the short term, frequent trade frictions may become the main challenge for exports in 2024. In the long run, the EU's proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will significantly curb international steel trade activities. In response to the above situations, some analysts point out that we should actively respond to challenges and seize development opportunities from the following aspects.

1： Actively building an overseas steel supply chain and allocating resources globally.

2： Seriously respond to new environmental barriers such as CBAM and actively participate in global governance

3： Follow up on national import and export policies to enhance international competitiveness.

4： Scientific prediction of international market demand and orderly promotion of international trade

2024 may face uncertainty, and relevant steel companies should be prepared for it. Chinese steel enterprises should firmly seize the opportunity of high-quality joint construction of the "the Belt and Road", scientifically predict the demand of the international market, and be alert to the risks associated with trade friction.